WPS

WIN/SHOW BETTING STRATEGY THOUGHTS:

I recently had a discussion with a very savvy bettor who showed me the math behind this strategy, and it opened my eyes.

Here is how he bets:

• Under 3-1
  WIN ONLY

• 3-1 to 15-1
  20% WIN / 80% SHOW

• 15-1 and higher
  10% WIN / 90% SHOW

• NEVER BETS TO PLACE.

I tried it this weekend, and the results were very interesting. I cashed seven WIN/SHOW tickets on horses ranging from 6-1 to 18-1 and caught some very nice show prices. In some races, a horse can pay nearly as much to show as it does to place.

And I think we all know how often live longshots run third!

Let's look at THE MATH:

Let’s say a 6/1 shot horse pays:

WIN: $14.00

PLACE: $7.00

SHOW: $5.00

Using the same $15 investment:

$5 WIN / $5 PLACE / $5 SHOW

Horse wins: $65 returned

Horse finishes second: $30 returned

Horse finishes third: $12.50 returned

$3 WIN / $12 SHOW

Horse wins: $51 returned

Horse finishes second: $30 returned

Horse finishes third: $30 returned

$14 more if they win

$17.50 more if they show

Which situation will happen more long term?

Yes, WPS returns more when the horse wins, but the returns are identical when it finishes second. The major difference comes when it runs third:

WPS returns only $12.50.

WIN/SHOW returns $30.

That third-place finish goes from a losing money to doubling your money. Think about it: higher-priced horses win at a much lower percentage. The chances of them finishing exactly second are also limited, but their chances of at least hitting the board are much better.

If you like playing live longshots, stop automatically betting WPS. Put the place money toward show and give yourself much stronger protection when your horse finishes third.